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31st
July 07 Microgen offer for Trace lapses. Tulip wins Trace It has just been announced that Microgen's
180p offer for Trace failed to get the required level of
shareholder acceptances and has therefore lapsed. By the closing time
today, Microgen had received acceptances from only 45.7% of shareholders. |
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31st
July 07
Amstrad sold to BSkyB Sir Alan Sugar's Amstrad has been bought
by BSkyB for £125m; causing Amstrad's share price to leap 20% to 145p.
Of course, Amstrad is now probably better
known to everyone in the UK because of the antics of Sugar on the
Apprentice. Amstrad of late made most (75%) of its revenues from set top
boxes for BSkyB - hence the purchase clearly makes sense.
But my "fondest" remembrances of
the company were back in the 1980s when Amstrad was the first really
affordable home computer. We bought one for word processing. Indeed my
wife persuaded her employer to utilise them across all branches of their
travel agency (do you remember when every town had half a dozen travel
agents? The last one in Farnham closed last week)
Those were the Amstrad heydays. More
recently we had disasters like the e-mailer and Sugar's media stardom.
1980s...those were the days.
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30th
July 07 Update- Steria and Xansa I note that Steria shares are down 6.8%
right now; valuing them at E808m. This compares with the E704m they are
paying for Xansa. This will, almost without doubt, infect them with a
serious dose of the old Acquisition Indigestion. Every company I have ever
tracked who takes over a company worth >50% of its then market cap
suffers the dreaded lergy. Usually takes 2-3 years to recover. Often leads
to death (ie change of ownership for the buyer). |
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30th
July 07 Torrid week.. As most readers will know it was a torrid
week on the Stock Exchanges worldwide. FTSE100 fell 5.62%. The pain was
felt in the tech sector too with NASDAQ down 4.64%, Techmark down 4.4% and
the FTSE SCS Index (the one that tracks Software and IT services stocks in
the UK) down 4.9%. UK Telecom stocks fell 5.7% and European Telecom stocks
were down 4.5%. Even the normally 'robust' Support Services sector fell
6.9% - wiping out all the gains for the year. |
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30th
July 07
Capgemini dismisses M&A speculation Capgemini announced its Q1 results on Friday. Although pretty good by anyone's standards, with organic revenue growth of 14%, they were none-the-less below analyst expectatoions and their shares fell as a result.
You can read Ovum's analysis of these
results Click here.
Interestingly at the analyst breifing
Capgemini not only said that they were not a bidder for Xansa (see
below!) but that they would not bid for Atos Origin either. CEO Paul
Hermelin also said that they had had no discussions whatsoever with
Infosys. as readers know there is a live rumour that Infosys (or another
Indian player) will bid for Capgemini. I have always dismissed
such speculation as I just cannot see the logic!
Smaller Indian acquisitions are possible
although none are underway
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30th
July 07 Xansa to be bought by Steria for £472m Further to the post on Friday, early this
morning Steria was announced as the bidder for Xansa at 130p per share,
valuing Xansa at £472m. that's a 70% premium to Xansa's close on
Thursday. |
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27th
July 07 Xansa receives bid approach - shares up 35% Xansa has announced that
it is in "advanced bid talks" sendings its shares up over 35%
and valuing the company at £362m. |
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26th
July 07 Market tumbles Three weeks ago, a "banker who
knows" told me that the ability of the PE sector to raise "Cov-Lite"
funding had stopped abruptly. I was told that the Alliance-Boots deal was
some £7b light and having great problems. Since then, the extent of their
fund raising difficulties has been made public. |
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26th
July 07 More on Didier and the dodgy bacon butties The "sacking" of Didier Herrmann
from the board of LogicaCMG has developed a few twists and turns.
It now transpires that he was not fired from LogicaCMG – just demoted
from the board. So who does he report to? Can't say. Who do his
(ex-)reports report to? Can't say. What is his precise role now? Can't
say. Why didn't LogicaCMG sack him outright? Can't say (but it is
understood that shareholders were not consulted prior to the decision). I
also understand that LogicaCMG says that the article in yesterday's FT Click
here was wrong to suggest that Didier is still running France, Germany
and Switzerland. |
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26th
July 07 Apple on a serious roll I reproduce below my very last post on Ovum
Holway's Hotnews
on 21st Dec 06 - a sad day as after 21 years I left the firm I had created
after 21 years upon the completion of the Datamonitor
acquisition. Freed from the restraints of our self imposed Independence
Charter, I immediately bought Apple shares for the first
time at $85. In last night's after-hours trading Apple had risen to $137 -
a rise of 60% for Holway
and the best performing share in Holway's
Portfolio by far! |
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Reproduced from Ovum Holway Hotnews 21st Dec 06 What I’d like for Christmas 2007 Many readers will have attended the annual Techmark Review debates between myself and Richard Kramer at Arete Research which were organised by Deloitte. Unlike Arete, I’m not a “stock picker”. Indeed we at Ovum are not regulated to give any kind of financial advice. At the end of the debate in Jan 04, we are both asked for our stock picks for 2004 and I rather rashly (and with all the legal caveats I could muster) suggested that I’d put my money on Apple whose share price then was $10. At the next session in Jan 05, Kramer and I had some interesting public repartee about this as Apple had risen to $32 by then. Was it too late to name Apple again as a Stock Pick for 2005? We settled on Kramer buying a lunch for the Ovum team if Apple rose still further in 2005. Apple ended 2005 on $71 and Kramer royally entertained us! It really seemed to be pushing my luck to suggest Apple as a Stock Pick for a third year. But that’s what has happened with Apple now on $85. Interestingly I note that analysts are now setting a target of $110 for Apple for 2007. I really will leave the stock picking to others better qualified than me. But as a life long Apple fan, I have to admit that I can see few rivals around that are likely to knock Apple off its unrelenting growth path right now. I see no rival to the iMac in my living room. Indeed as an entertainment centre in the Holway household, powering our 50 inch plasma screen where I show my photographs and videos all edited by Apple’s iPhoto and iMovie and playing my iTunes music around the house, it always provokes envy from our visitors – many of whom have gone right out and bought the same setup. Next year we will see iTV being shipped which seems to me to be the right product at exactly the right time. I don’t see Microsoft’s Zune being even making a dent in the iPod market. Apple reports continued growth in iTune downloads and the video part of this is only in its infancy. Personally what I’d really like for Christmas 2007 is an Apple iBlackberry. I might then get my ultimate Martini Moment; doing everything I can do with my Apple setup at home “Anywhere and Anytime” |
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24th
July 07 Corporate use of faceBook My annual ICT Leaders dinner for the
Princes Trust Technology Leadership Group this year (atop the BT Tower on
4th Sept) is entitled Power to the People and is all
about how users (corporate users and consumers) are now in the tech.
driving seat. It will major on Web 2.0 and social networking in
particular. I've written many pieces about the genre but decided that i
really ought to experience it myself before I could talk about it
properly. So I joined FaceBook about 3 weeks ago. I have been more amazed
than I expected! |
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24th
July 07 Disposals - iSoft and Misys Back in January, when the Isoft
difficulties were at their height, I reckoned that General Atlantic might
come in with a bid. In the end IBA seemed to be the
winner until last week German CompuGroup came in with a
66p all cash offer. This trumped the IBA offer of 52.7p which was in
shares. The deal involves CSC taking over full responsibility for the NHS
IT contract - indeed CSC is buying the IPR to the software used. |
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24th
July 07 Something wrong with the bacon butties? Early on the morning of 19th Sept 05,
Martin Read - CEO of LogicaCMG - phoned. His first words were
"I'm eating a bacon buttie with Didier Herrman (CEO of Unilog) and
introducing him to the delights of English cuisine". Read was
cock-a-hoop. |
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18th
July 07 RCM Technology Trust Just
to point you to the Stock Exchange announcement today re: the issue of
Subscription Shares at RCM Technology Trust plc. Assuming shareholders
agree at the EGM in Aug, shareholders get one free subscription share for
every five held. The Subscription price will be set at a 10% premium to
the Nett Asset Value on 14th Aug. Conversion once a year from 2008 to
2012. |
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18th
July 07 LogicaCMG I thought the 9% dive in LogicaCMG's H1 revenue was a bit steep and certainly gave me cause for concern. I note that Jim McKenna has been appointed acting CEO when Martin Read steps down in Sept. Safe pair of hands. But why is it taking so long to find Read's replacement? "News on the Street" tends to discount any of the IT services heavyweights we have mentioned getting the job. Apparently, wouldn't go down well with the City. Much more likely to be someone from outside the IT sector - we are told. |
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17th
July 07 Informa Bid for Datamonitor declared unconditional For all readers interested in the fate of Ovum, on Friday Informa declared the 650p cash offer for Datamonitor, made back in May, as unconditional in all respects, following receipt of valid acceptances in respect of about 54.9m Datamonitor shares, or 76%. In a separate statement today, Anthony Foye, Informa's FD who has been with the company for 20 years, announced he was leaving by the end of the year to "seek new challenges". " We are really an acquisitions and business machine now and Datamonitor was a good example of that sort of acquisition for us," Foye told Reuters. "It is all under control, it is a great business, but therein lies a problem for me because it is not much of a challenge. You feel that maybe you should try something else." So there you go. There seems something "not quite right" thinking that what you laboured hard over for 21 years is now just a rather small clog in an "acquisitions and business machine"! |
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13th
July 07 Blinkx I bought Blinkx - the video seach spoinout
from Autonomy - on its IPO in May. Therefore I have a major interest in
the following from the FT today. Hope it comes to pass! |
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12th
July 07 Microgen and Sage getting messy Followers of Microgen's 180p per share
offer of Trace should note that, earlier this week, Tulip (the MBO
vehicle) announced further irrevocables for their 156p offer. Tulip says
they now hold irrevocables for a total of 7.14m shares or 50.08% of the
share capital. A significant majority of these do NOT fall away if there
is a higher bid and are locked in for 12 months. They can only fall away
if Tulip withdraws its bid, which at the moment they seem resolute in not
doing. In addition, Tulip is offering to give 95% of shares in its main
subsidiaries to the current staff. Something, I have to admit, I have
never encountered before. |
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12th
July 07 Tiscali to buy Pipex Broadband? Newswires
and media full in last few hours of reports that Pipex
is about to announce the sale of its 1m UK broadband customers to Italian Tiscali
for c£210m. Yet another example of the rampant consolidation in the
highly competitive UK Broadband sector. |
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12th
July 07 Sage to acquire Cegid? A report on the FT's MergerMarket service today Click here suggests that Sage could be in the running to buy French software house Cegid. However, the report also suggests that PE houses were also likely bidders. Indeed H&F, which has recently bought the 'consolidated' Iris and CSG (see below) is mentioned in the article. Currently Cegid shares trades at E45 valuing the group at E395m. The FT report suggests at an offer price of "E55 or higher" is required - putting the value nearer E500m. That is well within Sage's range (indeed well within the range to avoid Holway's dreaded 'acquisition Indigestion'!) and Sage has made France a target area of expansion. Indeed Cegid seems an excellent fit with Sage. Cegid concentrates on business software for SMEs in particular verticals like chartered accountants and auditors, fashion, industry, retailers, hotel and restaurant management, distributors, public works and civil engineering, and hygiene. It has standard software in payroll, HR, sales admin - like Sage. Sage already has some experience of acquisitions in France having bought Adonix and Cogestib in 2005 - although these were pretty small. Cegid would add around E250m revenue. Looks like Cegid would prefer a "trade buyer". To me Sage seems the most natural of homes. |
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11th
July 07 Focus on Facebook Excellent article on Facebook from the ever improving MarketClusters. Their first real "backgrounder". I commend you to read it. Click here. |
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10th
July 07 New respectability for Social Networking I do recommend you to read the article in today's FT entitled "Talent Hunt in the Virtual World". To read Click Here. It includes how the UK's PA Consulting has setup virtual office in Second Life to help its recruitment. It goes on to report that E&Y has created a Facebook group for anyone interested in a job. More than 8000 people have signed up for the group. In the last few months, I have spoken to lots of people about "Social networking". There really does seem to be a huge divide between those who still think it is something for teenagers (which, of course it is) and those who have realised that this is a vital marketing and communication tool for all ages. OK, right now, as the figures I have reported before show, it's the sub 40 year olds that have really embraced it. Given that many companies are controlled by those that are over 40, but rely on both the purchasing power and the jobs of sub 40 year olds, iit seems very dangerous for them to write off the medium so flippantly. If you are involved in any graduate recruitment, your presence and resulting reputation on the social networking sites is going to have a huge effect on your success. Graduates, or any "younger" recruits, would first turn to such sites to see what current employees thought about working there. Indeed, they will then interact with them and get some pretty forthright answers. The same will apply to people contemplating large purchases (like cars) or holiday destinations. Indeed, this viral networking could make careers (just see what Myspace did for Lilly Allen!) or break them. Sorry to repeat the "Ignore this at your peril" warning. But I just did. |
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6th
July 07 New bosses everywhere Nick Wilson (ex of Unisys
and before that IBM Global Services) has been appointed
to head up CSC UK. He takes over from Keith Wilman who
left several months back to head up Atos Origin UK.
Duncan Tait is promoted to head Unisys UK in Nick's place. Nick had taken over
from Alwyn Welch who left to head Parity. (Are you
keeping up?) |
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4th
July 07 O2 for iPhone? According to the FT today O2 is "poised
to clinch a deal as Apple's exclusive network partner for the iPhone
in the UK". The report also gives the impression that (as in the
US) there will not be a 3G version on launch. |
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4th
July 07 Vin Murria not to be part of "New Iris" We understand that, at the 11th hour and
contrary to the statements made at the time of the H&F purchase of
both Iris and CSG from HG Capital, Vin Murria will now not have any role
in the "New Iris". Vin was to have been "Chief M&A
Officer" Only a few weeks back (13th June) Vin had said "The
combination of IRIS's market leading solutions and highly successful
operational capabilities are hugely complimentary to CS Group's M&A
driven growth and niche market focus. This is an exciting opportunity to
dynamically grow a successful customer centric business that can only be
positive for all clients and employees alike. We too are delighted to have
the backing of Hellman & Friedman." |
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4th July 07 Total recall... As many readers know, I published the first
“Holway Report” back in 1988. Also in 1988, a tiny UK S/ITS company
called Total Systems launched into the USM (the
forerunner of AIM). So I have been reading Terry Bourne’s Chairman’s
statements every year since. Bourne is “special”…there are few
quoted UK S/ITS companies who now have the same Ch. and CEO as in 1988.
Probably now proving what many have long suspected about my mental health,
I’ve rather enjoyed his statements. |
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3rd July 07 Internet Tarts Last night at the Prince's Trust Summer
Reception (see below) the BBC's Ashley Highfield asked for a show of hands
on who had FaceBook accounts. Over 50% admitted this. Considering the
audience was mostly over 40, mostly high powered tech people, that was
interesting in its own right!" Indeed, as iI have written on this
Blog before, I was surprised to find so many of my business friends
already on faceBook when I signed up. |
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2nd
July 07 Indices for June "Sell in May and Go Away? Well, so far you would have done well to heed that advice. All the indices we follow fell in June. Indeed the FTSE SCS index was down 4.23%. It's interesting that the two powerhouses this year - Support Services and Media also fell. There are a growing number who are getting increasingly concerned about the economy as a whole. Higher interest rates are really starting to have an effect as the warning from Tesco in June indicated. Consumer spending effects many parts of the tech sector directly. "Maybe the iPhone will have to wait if I can't pay the mortgage?" But it also affects the whole corporate IT sector too. Outsourcing tends to be "non-cyclical" but other sectors - hardware and software in particular - are prone to economic uncertainty. But on the other hand, M&A boosts share prices in unnatural ways. Maybe it was just a shortage of tech M&A in June that caused the "blip"? |
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2nd
July 07 Autonomy, BBC and all that stuff A big thank
you to everyone who attended the Princes Trust Technology
Leadership Group summer reception
atop Barclay
in Canary Wharf. |
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1st
July 07 iPhone therefore iAm The iPhone hype continued to gather pace
this weekend after the "Jesus Phone" was finally made available
to the Choosen Few at 6.00pm US time in Friday. |
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1st
July 07 Groupe Bull to 'rescue' of GFI? History has shown that, when it comes to chauvinism,
the French would win by a country mile. Nowhere is this more evident than
when those jolly foreigners want to take over their companies. It gets
even more intense when that company is in technology. What tends to
happen, when one of their own is threatened with a 'hostile' bid, is that
a "French" deal is hatched behind the scenes. |
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